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Updated: 5 November 2025

Factors Impacting Property Prices

Factors Impacting Property Prices | TCs 2Cents

Important

Property is expensive. But the conversation needs to be honest. Australia’s population is heavily concentrated into a few major cities, lifestyle inflation is real, and compromise is not a failure — it is the entry fee.

I have posted a fair bit lately about negative gearing, the housing crisis, and the whole “we need 1.2 million homes” conversation.

If you want the longer version on those topics, you can check out my other posts where I unpack negative gearing and the supply problem in more detail.

This post is different.

This one is about the comments I keep seeing underneath those posts.

The ones that usually go something like:

  • “It is all broken.”
  • “There will be a crash.”
  • “Our kids will never buy a home.”
  • “Australia is the same as everywhere else, just look overseas.”

Alright. Let us talk about it.

Not with doom. Not with hype.

Just plain English.

1. Australia Is a Weird Property Market (And I Mean That Respectfully)

Before we compare Australia to “the rest of the world”, we need to be honest about one thing:

A huge chunk of our population piles into a small number of big cities.

As at 30 June 2024, Australia’s estimated resident population was 27,204,809.

And as at 30 June 2024 (ABS “Greater Capital City Statistical Area” populations):

  • Sydney: 5,557,233 (about 20.4% of Australia)
  • Melbourne: 5,350,705 (about 19.7%)
  • Brisbane: 2,780,063 (about 10.2%)

Combined, Sydney + Melbourne + Brisbane are about 50.3% of the entire Australian population.

So when half the country wants to live, work, study, and build a life in three big “magnet” cities, prices do not need a conspiracy. They just need maths.

2. Once a City Gets Big Enough, the Inner Ring Gets Expensive. Always.

Here is my general view:

Once a city gets past a certain critical mass (call it 3 million-ish people), the land within roughly 20–25km of the CBD becomes premium territory.

Not because the world is unfair.

Because there is only so much land, and a lot of people want it.

And it is not just “close to the city”.

It is close to:

  • Major job hubs
  • Good schools
  • Hospitals
  • Transport
  • Beaches, parks, cafes, sports
  • The lifestyle people actually want

So if you are waiting for “normal pricing” within 25km of a major CBD, you might be waiting a while.

3. “Look Overseas” Is Usually Apples vs Oranges

I hear this all the time:

“Just look at what happened in X country.”

Sure. Sometimes overseas examples are useful.

But if we are going to compare, I want an apples-with-apples comparison:

  • Similar migration settings
  • Similar geography and zoning constraints
  • Similar concentration in a handful of cities
  • Similar home ownership culture
  • Similar tax and banking settings

If the comparison ignores those things, it is usually just a scary story with charts.

4. The Part No One Wants to Hear: Lifestyle Inflation Is Real

Here is where people get cranky, but it matters.

A lot of the pain is not just about property prices.

It is that expectations have changed.

Think about what many households now consider “normal”:

  • Two cars (often newer, often financed)
  • Multiple streaming services
  • Multiple televisions
  • Regular meals out and deliveries
  • Overseas holidays
  • Bigger wardrobes, more “stuff”
  • Renovations and upgrades early, not later
  • Bigger homes with more bathrooms, extra living areas, studies, theatres, you name it

None of that is “wrong”.

But it is expensive.

And it competes directly with your ability to save a deposit, service a loan, or tolerate higher rates.

So when someone says “property is impossible”, I often think:

Property is hard, yes.

But we are also trying to buy property while living like we already own it.

5. The First Home Expectation Trap

Another common pattern I see:

  • Parents worked for decades to pay off a home
  • Over time, the suburb got better (transport, shops, schools, jobs)
  • The property value rose because the area improved

Then the next generation looks at that “finished product” and says:

“That should be my first home.”

That is not how it worked for most families.

In plain terms:

  • Many people do not buy their “forever home” first
  • They buy a “starter” home, build equity, and move over time

And yes, that often means the first home is:

  • Further out
  • Smaller
  • Older
  • Needs work
  • Not in the dream suburb

That is normal.

It has always been normal.

6. The Rule That Never Changes: You Cannot Have Your Cake and Eat It Too

If there is one message I would tattoo on the inside of Australia’s property debate, it is this:

You cannot have your cake and eat it too.

When it comes to buying a home, you are usually balancing four levers:

  • Location (close to the action)
  • Size (bedrooms, land, storage)
  • Finish (renovated, modern, “turnkey”)
  • Lifestyle (cars, holidays, eating out, subscriptions, spending)

Most people can get two of these easily.

Some can get three.

Very few can get all four at once, especially as first home buyers in Sydney, Melbourne, or Brisbane.

So the real question becomes:

Where are you prepared to compromise?

Because if you are not prepared to compromise on lifestyle or property quality, you are going to have to compromise on location.

7. A Practical Way to Think About It

If you are a household trying to “get in”, here are realistic approaches people actually use:

  • Start smaller than you want — a townhouse instead of a freestanding house, two bedrooms instead of three, one bathroom for a while
  • Start further out than you want — buy where the money works, accept a longer commute, aim for areas with improving infrastructure
  • Rent for longer, but do it intentionally — rent close to work, build savings and borrowing power, do not pretend renting is “failure” if it is strategic
  • Keep lifestyle in check for a few years — you do not need to live like a monk, but you do need a plan that matches your goals

None of this is personal advice.

It is just reality.

Wrap-Up

Property is expensive. But the conversation needs to be honest.

Yes, Sydney property prices are high.

Yes, supply matters (I have covered that in my housing crisis posts).

Yes, policies like negative gearing, planning, and infrastructure all play a role (I have covered that too).

But if we want a serious conversation, we also need to acknowledge:

  • Australia’s population is heavily concentrated in a few major cities
  • The inner ring of big cities is always going to be expensive
  • Expectations and lifestyle inflation are real
  • Compromise is not a failure; it is the entry fee

If you want to live in one of the country’s most in-demand cities, close to the CBD, close to transport, close to good schools and jobs…

Something has got to give.

You cannot have your cake and eat it too.

Disclaimer: This article provides general information only and does not take into account your personal circumstances. It is not financial or tax advice. You should seek independent advice from a qualified professional before making decisions about tax, legal or financial planning matters, along with loan structures or entity structure.

Andy Teece

About Atomic Business Advisers

Since 1962, we have helped generations of families and business owners build stronger financial foundations. Atomic Business Advisers continues that legacy today through strategic advisory, practical insights, and strong client education. Our integrity, consistency and care are why people keep coming back — year after year, generation after generation.

- Andy Teece, Director

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